At present China economy is slow in stabilization, steady for the better.Supply side structural reforms achieved interim results.The positive factors of economic growth are increasing, but the structural contradictions and risks of economic development still exist.As the SSAW steel pipe,welded carbon steel pipe ,stainless steel pipe,and other products manufacturers service,Shinestar group has been very concerned about the development of Chinese economy.Today, shinestar Steel Research Institute talk about the risk of economic growth in 2017.
First, the risk of external shocks. The global economy is facing increasing conflict, after the international financial crisis, the developed countries in Europe and the United States have been mired in structural problems, economic reform is sluggish, slow economic recovery, conservatism tends to rise.Global economic growth is expected to be generally weak, developed economies are still slow growth, emerging markets and the development of the economy will only moderate growth.U.S. inflation is expected to push up interest rates and the dollar exchange rate,the new president of the United States proposed to reduce income tax, expand the scale of infrastructure, repatriation of immigrants and other policies tend to push up U.S.Emerging market countries economic recovery is not solid, accompanied by domestic risk is intensifying,especially continue to rely on credit to drive economic growth eventually leads to increased risk of damaging adjustment.
Second is the real economy from the bottom of the recovery, the economy is still downward pressure.In 2016, the real economy from the bottom of the recovery,Mainly rely on supply side reform is expected to promote the recovery of PPI from the bottom, the real estate market driven by the growth of real estate investment growth picked up.At present, the fixed asset investment growth downward pressure, has not yet appeared signs of cyclical rebound in fixed asset investment.Private fixed asset investment growth continued to fall, real estate development investment growth may slow down.
Third is the real estate market than expected development potential risks.2016 real estate market than expected development of stable economic growth has played a positive role, but its negative impact in 2017 need to be concerned.The real estate market regulation will have a negative impact on investment and bank profitability indicators.2016 in October, some cities have adopted a more stringent measures to regulate real estate, real estate investment may also be down accordingly.At the end of June 2016, commercial banks non-performing loans 1 trillion and 437 billion yuan, more than the same period last year 31%.Although the proportion of non-performing loans of commercial banks is only 1.75%, but the proportion of non-performing loans and non-performing loans rising trend both need to remain vigilant.
Four is the pressure of capital outflows and devaluation is expected to rise. Since 2016 halfyear, China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to decline significantly. From January to November of 2016, the foreign exchange reserves accumulated decreased by 278.76 billion USD, the foreign exchange reserves of 3.05 trillion USD to the end of November.After CNY joined the SDR, the CNY against the USD accelerated depreciation, as to December 29, 2016, has exceeded 6.95 CNY/ USD. Next year, IMF will do more rigorous evaluation to CNY exchange rate control measure, which will make CNY capital control more difficult.
Shinestar Group will face marketing risk and challenges, and will make great efforts to produce more high quality ERW Steel Pipe,galvanized steel pipe ,stainless steel pipe accelerate enterprise transformation and upgrading, and develop China’s economic.